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There are two main drivers. One is technological innovation. We're seeing multiple new battery products that have been launched that feature about 30% higher energy density and lower cost. The second driver is a continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals.
The price of lithium-ion battery cells declined by 97% in the last three decades. A battery with a capacity of one kilowatt-hour that cost $7500 in 1991 was just $181 in 2018. That’s 41 times less. What’s promising is that prices are still falling steeply: the cost halved between 2014 and 2018. A halving in only four years.
Now, MIT researchers have carried out an exhaustive analysis of the studies that have looked at the decline in the prices these batteries, which are the dominant rechargeable technology in today’s world.
When we talk about the battery from, let's say, 2023 to all the way to 2030, roughly over 40% of the decline is just coming from lower commodity costs, because we had a lot of green inflation during 2020 to 2023. The level of those metal prices was very high. What’s enabling battery makers to increase energy density so dramatically?
The improvements we’ve seen in battery technologies are not limited to lower costs. As Ziegler and Trancik show, the energy density of cells has also been increasing. Energy density measures the amount of electrical energy you can store in a liter (or unit) of battery. In 1991 you could only get 200 watt-hours (Wh) of capacity per liter of battery.
Lithium-ion batteries are the most commonly used. Lithium-ion battery cells have also seen an impressive price reduction. Since 1991, prices have fallen by around 97%. Prices fall by an average of 19% for every doubling of capacity. Even more promising is that this rate of reduction does not yet appear to be slowing down.
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The researchers found that the cost of these batteries has dropped by 97 percent since they were first commercially introduced in 1991. This rate of improvement is …
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