Overall, the average energy supply investment ratios are approximately 4, 6, and 10 across the next three decades, respectively. Investment in low-carbon alternatives to meet energy demand gradually reduces consumption of fossil fuels, limiting risks of price spikes and volatility.
First, the investment threshold for the first energy storage technology under the single strategy is 0.0757 USD/kWh, which is higher than the technology investment threshold of 0.0656 USD/kWh for the first energy storage under the continuous strategy.
At this stage, the investment threshold for energy storage to involvement in China's peaking auxiliary services is 0.1068 USD/kWh. In comparison, the current average peak and off-peak power price difference in China is approximately 0.0728–0.0873 USD/kWh.
Additionally, the investment threshold is significantly lower under the single strategy than it is under the continuous strategy. Therefore, direct investment in future energy storage technologies is the best choice when new technologies are already available.
Under the continuous investment strategy, the firm can invest in two energy storage technologies sequentially, and each state is subject to policy uncertainty. Fig. 4 indicates the different states of the continuous investment strategy and the corresponding value functions under policy uncertainty.
Specifically, with an expected growth rate of 0, when the volatility rises from 0.1 to 0.2, the critical value of the investment in energy storage technology rises from 0.0757 USD/kWh to 0.1019 USD/kWh, which is more pronounced. In addition, the value of the investment option also rises from 72.8 USD to 147.7 USD, which is also more apparent.
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