From July 2023 through summer 2024, battery cell pricing is expected to plummet by more than 60% due to a surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and grid expansion in China and the United States. From pv magazine USA
There are two main drivers. One is technological innovation. We're seeing multiple new battery products that have been launched that feature about 30% higher energy density and lower cost. The second driver is a continued downturn in battery metal prices. That includes lithium and cobalt, and nearly 60% of the cost of batteries is from metals.
That’s remarkably lower than the average global rate in 2023 ($95/kWh). Bloomberg attributes not one but three factors to the fast-falling and significantly low battery cost in China: declining raw-material prices, overcapacity, and shrinking margins. Raw material prices took a big hit in the last one and a half years.
In China, LFP battery packs now cost $75/kWh, and at that level, companies can sell EVs at the same price as or even lower than combustion engine models. Nearly two-thirds of EVs in the country are already cheaper than their ICE counterparts. The decline in battery prices in China will eventually benefit consumers in the global markets as well.
On the plus side, battery companies are improving battery technology and manufacturing processes, and these enhancements also somewhat contribute to falling prices. BloombergNEF (BNEF), which researches commodity markets and revolutionary technologies, estimates battery prices will remain low for at least several more years.
This year, prices are expected to drop further to $111 per kWh, and by 2026, they are projected to reach just $80. In two years, EV batteries will cost nearly 50 percent less than they did in 2023, bringing electric vehicles to ownership cost parity with gasoline-powered vehicles in the US – and that's before factoring in subsidies.
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